1101 E. 58th Street
The Macroeconomics of Uncertainty and Volatility
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
Bloom will start by laying out some stylized facts. Uncertainty and volatility appear to be highly countercyclical. This is true for macro uncertainty (economy level) and micro uncertainty (across industries, firms, and products), which both rise sharply in recessions. Uncertainty also appears counter-cyclical in both global superpowers (the US and the UK), in other lesser developed countries (Germany, France, Japan, Italy, Canada, etc.), and in developing countries. In fact, uncertainty appears to have been cyclical going back to the early 1900s.
Bloom will then focus on what the causes of this cyclicality of uncertainty are and conclude recessions are partly caused by exogenous rises in uncertainty and partly cause this uncertainty. Finally, he will consider the impact of the uncertainty of amplifying and propagating the business cycle, focusing particularly on the Great Recession of 2008–2012, in which uncertainty—and particularly policy uncertainty—have become major issues.
More Information HERE
Rosenwald Hall, Room 301
“The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks”
“Really Uncertain Business Cycles”
“Measuring Economic Uncertainty”
Scott R. Baker, Nick Bloom, and Steven J. Davis